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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd