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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still