Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
