A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
